--- title: "Retention and LTV growth for DTC brands" description: "Grow what a customer is worth after the first order, with retention and lifecycle work. The numbers we watch and the stack behind them." canonical: "https://www.pollyester.com/services/grow-the-customer" --- [Pollyester](https://www.pollyester.com/index.md) › [Services](https://www.pollyester.com/services.md) › Retention and LTV growth for DTC brands Services we provide Grow the customer Grow the customer # Your next growth is sitting in your customer list. Winning a new customer keeps getting more expensive. The ones you already have are sitting in your own order history, and most brands barely look. We build the models that spot a customer drifting away before they're gone, prove the lift against a control group we leave alone, and hand the whole thing over running in your stack. [Book the retention diagnostic →](https://www.pollyester.com/contact.md) [See all services →](https://www.pollyester.com/services.md) ![Your next growth is sitting in your customer list.](https://www.pollyester.com/services/grow-the-customer/banner.dark.webp) How it runs today Hand-built segments, churn spotted after the fact What breaks By the time a customer looks at risk, they're already gone What you get Models that see it coming, proven against a holdout The shift ## The next dollar moved to retention. The old way Retention meant hand-built segments and email flows, with at-risk defined only after a customer had already gone quiet. The AI-era shift Acquisition keeps getting more expensive, so the marginal dollar of growth now comes from the customers you already have. And the tooling caught up. Models trained on your own order history can flag a customer drifting away weeks before it shows in their behavior, and tell you what to send each one, and when. That used to take a data team. It doesn't anymore. You can see a customer leaving weeks before they've left. What we actually do ## The work, made concrete. 01 ### Retention & LTV diagnostic We read your order history the way an operator reads a P&L: how each cohort behaves over time, what a customer is worth after costs, where the retention revenue is going. It ends in a ranked list of what to fix first, and what to leave alone. 02 ### Predictive retention build Models built on your own customer data that score who's likely to leave, what they're worth, and when they'll buy next. Deployed into the tools you already run, documented, and handed over. You own it, nothing's locked to us. 03 ### Lifecycle rebuilt around the predictions Winbacks that go out before the customer's actually gone, replenishment reminders timed to how each person reorders, and a nudge toward the second product at the moment it's most likely to land. 04 ### An automation pilot, scoped honestly Where it makes sense, we let the system run the routine decisions on its own. We start with the low-risk majority, and everything is measured against a control group, so you know the lift is real. Proof ## The number the work carries. MUD\\WTR · Health & Wellness DTC Beverage (subscription) A strong subscription brand where cancels looked sudden but weren't: the signals were there 45 days early, and the cancel flow treated every subscriber the same. Per-subscriber churn propensity on their first-party data, a rebuilt cancel-save flow, and replenishment timing tuned to actual usage instead of a fixed calendar. Churn, seen before the cancel. Per-subscriber churn propensity on the brand's own first-party data, with replenishment timed to actual usage instead of a fixed calendar. Duckhorn Repeat purchase within twelve months, from first bottle to club membership, timed to actual buying rhythm. The first step We start inside your own order history: how your customer cohorts actually behave over time, what a customer is really worth after costs, and where retention revenue is leaking. You get a prioritized read before you commit to building anything. [Book the retention diagnostic →](https://www.pollyester.com/contact.md) What we move ## What we watch on retention. After costs What a customer is worth lifetime value on contribution margin, held against what it costs to win them, because gross numbers flatter everyone Climbing Repeat purchase rate the share of customers who come back for a second order, then a third Falling Subscription churn read monthly, cohort by cohort, so a fix shows up where it happened Holdout-proven Incremental revenue every model measured against a control group we leave alone, so the lift is proven, not asserted Benchmarks and targets, not guarantees. We baseline yours first. How we work ## How the engagement runs. 3. 01 ### Diagnose We baseline your numbers and map the operation end to end, so the work targets a real leak, not a hunch. 4. 02 ### Prioritize We rank the opportunities by dollars of impact and effort, and agree on what to do first. 5. 03 ### Build We build the real thing in production (for you, or alongside your team) against a measured baseline. 6. 04 ### Prove We hold the work against a holdout or benchmark, so the lift is proven, not asserted. 7. 05 ### Hand over Documentation, dashboards, and an accountable owner on your team, so the work keeps running without us. ## Where this connects [Grow the customer Earn advocacy The customers you keep longest start bringing the next ones in. That loop is its own piece of work. →](https://www.pollyester.com/services/earn-advocacy.md) [Deliver without leaks Cost optimization Retention only counts if the margin survives the trip. Worth checking both. →](https://www.pollyester.com/services/cost-optimization.md) ## Start with your own order history. The diagnostic is the honest first step. We read your numbers, show you where retention revenue is leaking, and rank what's worth fixing. Then you decide whether to build, and whether it's with us. [Book a working session →](https://www.pollyester.com/contact.md) [See how we work →](https://www.pollyester.com/engagement.md) ## Related services - [Earn advocacy](https://www.pollyester.com/services/earn-advocacy.md) - [Cost optimization](https://www.pollyester.com/services/cost-optimization.md) - [All services](https://www.pollyester.com/services.md) --- ## Pollyester — site navigation Primary: [Services](https://www.pollyester.com/services.md) · [Work](https://www.pollyester.com/work.md) · [Partners](https://www.pollyester.com/partners.md) · [About](https://www.pollyester.com/about.md) · [Ideas](https://www.pollyester.com/blog.md) Company: [About](https://www.pollyester.com/about.md) · [Careers](https://www.pollyester.com/careers.md) · [Contact](https://www.pollyester.com/contact.md) · [How a project runs](https://www.pollyester.com/process.md) · [Engagement](https://www.pollyester.com/engagement.md) Services: [Get found](https://www.pollyester.com/services/get-found.md) · [Get chosen](https://www.pollyester.com/services/get-chosen.md) · [Grow the customer](https://www.pollyester.com/services/grow-the-customer.md) · [Earn advocacy](https://www.pollyester.com/services/earn-advocacy.md) · [Pick, pack & ship](https://www.pollyester.com/services/pick-pack-ship.md) · [Order orchestration](https://www.pollyester.com/services/order-orchestration.md) · [Cost optimization](https://www.pollyester.com/services/cost-optimization.md) · [Build the agent-ready core](https://www.pollyester.com/services/build-the-agent-ready-core.md) · [Brand & identity](https://www.pollyester.com/services/brand-identity.md) · [Creative & art direction](https://www.pollyester.com/services/creative-art-direction.md) · [Content & campaigns](https://www.pollyester.com/services/content-campaigns.md) · [Video & media](https://www.pollyester.com/services/video-media.md) · [Storefront & product](https://www.pollyester.com/services/storefront-product.md) · [Experiential & activations](https://www.pollyester.com/services/experiential-activations.md) · [Events & retail](https://www.pollyester.com/services/events-retail.md) · [Design & build](https://www.pollyester.com/services/design-build.md) Legal: [Privacy](https://www.pollyester.com/privacy.md) · [Terms](https://www.pollyester.com/terms.md) Full index: [llms.txt](https://www.pollyester.com/llms.txt) — the markdown map of the site.